How to Support Early-Career Professional Development as AI Eats Entry-Level Jobs
As AI rapidly automates many entry-level roles, young professionals face a shrinking path to gain the experience they need to grow. In this article, RBL Co-Founder Norm Smallwood and Jon Younger, PhD (Mensch.work) explore why traditional career development models must evolve, and how organizations can create more effective early-career pathways through mentorship, meaningful work, and adaptive learning strategies.
How to Support Early-Career Professional Development as AI Eats Entry-Level Jobs
Several recent articles have sounded the alarm on the AI threat to early career professional development.
The concern as presented by the Fifth Estate is this: With AI replacing or obsolescing as much as 50% of traditional entry-level or early career work, we are watching a disaster unfolding in slow motion but gathering speed. Will young professionals be denied the traditional apprentice stage and be stymied in their ability to develop the skills needed for a successful career?
We think the Career Stages research offers a new and helpful perspective on how to support early-career professional development in the age of AI.
The Dilemma
A recent NY Times article put it this way: “This month, millions of young people will graduate from college and look for work in industries that have little use for their skills, view them as expensive and expendable, and are rapidly phasing out their jobs in favor of artificial intelligence. That is the troubling conclusion of my conversations over the past several months with economists, corporate executives and young job-seekers, many of whom pointed to an emerging crisis for entry-level workers that appears to be fueled, at least in part, by rapid advances in A.I. capabilities.”
“We’ve seen a huge drop in the demand for ‘entry-level’ talent across a number of our client sets,” says James Callander, CEO of a Freshminds, a London recruitment firm according to Bloomberg. An increasing number of clients want “work ready” professionals who already have a first job under their belt, he adds.
With many current jobs replaced by AI in areas like data entry, customer service, and call centers concern is understandable. A solid Plan B isn’t in place. And AI isn’t the only factor producing a generational trauma. Add Gallup’s finding that only 35% of young professionals are engaged by their work and company. the residue of Covid PSTD, mental health challenges felt by 51% of young professionals, remote work and the loneliness crisis, the impact of “quiet quitting” and “boss-ism”, and the growing numbers of young employees with side-gigs. These factors in combination certainly test organizations and their leaders.
But while AI temporarily reduces the basket of entry level work by replacing low-skilled, routine, repetitive, administrative work, the loss of these traditional entry level jobs might have less impact on early development than it seems. There are three fundamental arguments against the fearmongering: first, much of the work AI is automating is not particularly developmental. Second, as in other technology innovations, as one door closes, another opens. And third, there are other alternative paths for young professionals and their companies that better help build a strong early career foundation.
What’s the “job to be done” in early-career professional development?
Forty years ago, HBS professors Paul Thompson and Gene Dalton published their research on the career stages of professional performance. Through years of study with companies across multiple industries, much of it tech based, they found that career high performers transited through four distinct stages of professional contribution. The four stages were:
- Apprentice: learning the ropes, earning trust
- Individual contributor: establishing expertise and a reputation for strong performance
- Mentor: coaching and developing others
- Sponsor: leading through vision and strategy
Over the years, a good deal of research has reinforced the Career Stages model, but also showed how it’s adapted to a changing organizational landscape over time. Of particular interest is how apprenticeship requirements have changed. As employees move organizations more frequently, and as college and university education provides greater opportunities to develop organizational skills, success in apprenticeship has become less company specific and more a flexible and adaptive general skillset. The BLS notes that young professionals in the 80’s would typically have 3-4 employers over the course of their career. The current average is closer to 12 employers.
Early stage professionals have more varied work experiences these days and these experiences mature individuals more quickly and broadly.
Many entry-level jobs are not very developmental
From a Career Stage perspective, successful apprenticeships enable young professionals to demonstrate these skills:
- Learning how to perform as a team member
- Understanding and adapting to the cultural expectations of their organizations
- Earning trust by demonstrating competence in the basics
- Building productive collegial relationships including an informal or formal mentorship
We know apprenticeship in some form is essential. A firm command of the basics of one’s profession is as necessary as the proper foundation of a house. But not all entry-level roles are equally development. In fact, the roles AI is replacing may not build foundational skills. According to the WEF, “Nearly two-thirds (63%) of all use cases could be summed up into administrative, repetitive categories: tasks like data collection, document verification, compliance support, internal reporting and process documentation.” While administrative activities are certainly helpful to early professionals as an experience, the impact on career and professional competence is likely not that significant.
Technology will create more opportunities, not fewer
While AI will eliminate many entry level roles it will also create more, if history is a useful guide. For example, the mass production of automobiles created far more jobs than it destroyed, transforming the auto industry into a major employer and opening opportunities for millions of workers. Similarly, the internet has created many more jobs than it destroyed by enabling new industries and improving job mobility. As the WEF forecasts: “The jobs created the next decade are equivalent to 14% of today’s employment. Alongside, 92 million roles will be displaced ... This means there will be a net employment increase of 78 million jobs.”
Other paths to successful apprenticeship
Students nowadays have more opportunities to build early career competence. Gallup notes that 40% of college students have had one or more internship while in school.30-35% of college students have a “side gig” according to another research study. 17% of startups are led by students while in college and soon to be joined by an additional 16% of young professionals who plan to start their company following graduation. These apprenticeship experiences have the potential to help young professionals learn how to add value. There are two challenges for an apprentice. The first is more obvious-people hire students so that they can contribute their emerging technical skills to projects. So, honing technical skills is a clear deliverable for both the apprentice and the organization. The second is less obvious. To become an expert who is learning how to get things done, the apprentice must learn the social network of the organization. This includes understanding the needs of the sponsor and knowing who to go to during the project to get feedback. Providing an internal mentor who is aware of this need and can explicitly help the apprentice contribute whatever technical skills they have as well as help them to navigate the ropes to skip and the ropes to know goes a long way to building the right experience.
AI in the short and medium term is focused on replacing low value, routine, repetitive work through automation or superior search capability. This is work that has traditionally been given to new employees and interns because they are cheaper or their time is less valuable. As long as the process remains manual, it must be done by someone. But let’s be honest about the actual developmental value of grunt work.
What alternative career experiences are more robustly supporting early career success? Here are a few strategies currently in use in organizations.
- Micro-internships offer an early experience of corporate work and life
Parker-Dewey, founded by Jeffrey Moss in 2015 works with both universities and employers like Microsoft to provide students with early practical experience through “micro-internships”, short-term, paid, professional assignments. These micro-internships provide a way to explore different career paths, gain practical work experience, and demonstrate competence.
- Make professional maturity a factor in hiring
Some organizations are focusing their hiring on employees who have mastered the apprenticeship stage while in college. We pointed out earlier that 40% of graduates have had one or more internships during college, 35% had a side-gig, and almost a third of graduates are leading or planning a startup. These experiences provide powerful learning: the importance of communication, building cooperative relationships, punctuality, dependability, accountability and commitment to an outcome. Stories about Steve Jobs (Apple) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) who left college to found breakthrough companies are the exception not the rule. Starting as a leader rather than a technical contributor is not the path to success for most.Employees that have demonstrated a level of maturity should be offered roles consistent with their experience, not their age.
- Mentorship, coaching, and feedback is the backbone of development
Over 80% of GenZs see the importance of a mentor, but only 52% report having a mentor relationship.That’s a shame because over 90% of employees who’ve had a mentor relationship rates it important to their career development. A variety of statistics point out the importance of a mentoring relationship. One study notes that employees with satisfying mentor relationships are more often promoted. Another mentions that individuals with mentor relationships remain in their organization longer, report greater satisfaction with their job, and show greater empowerment and confidence. Research shows again and again that mentorship, coaching and feedback are core enablers of early career success. Who doesn’t remember the manager or senior pro who invested in their success.
- AI agents provide tool support for early career development
New AI applications enable industry to augment and personalize their early development. Companies like AceUp provide coaching and feedback support through technology. BetterUp has created virtual coaches for employees in many companies. Other organizations use AI agents to help young employees and mentors to build apprenticeship journey maps that incorporate training experiences, opportunities for project work within the organization, rotational assignments that broaden a young employee’s experience, and other offerings that complement the employee’s prior experiences and established skillsets. While impacting some roles, AI is a powerful tool in support of development.
- Make what’s old new again in learning and development
During the 50’s and 60’s, many organizations established creative and highly effective programs of early career development.IBM, Ford and GE were among the organizations that created rotational programs offering talented young employees a broader view of the work and opportunities available to them, and accelerated progression for the high performers. Hewlett Packard offered highly structured training programs for employees from orientation and first job to retirement, demonstrating a strong commitment to employee performance and growth.Exxon’s orientation for professionals was a week long, incorporated newbies from around the globe, and focused primarily on impacting the culture and values of the organization. Some of these initiatives continue today: Within the pharma industry, for example, GSK offers a rotational program, Pfizer provides younger talents with the opportunity to be part of important project work, and Johnson and Johnson continues to provide a wide range of training opportunities.KPMG offers AI support to employees in selecting relevant learning and development experiences, and Electrolux utilizes AI to enable employees to post for new jobs.
Make AI a feature rather than a bug in early-career development
We see AI as net positive for early development. There are a variety of ways that young careerists, during their student years, can prepare themselves experientially for successful career. Well-designed and deployed AI agents free employees from poorly designed work, and provide early career professionals better learning and greater challenge than traditional entry level roles. AI, like other technologies, is forecasted to create more work opportunity, not less, and work that is generally more demanding and more developmental than the repetitive, routine, low value work that it automates.
In the era of Generative AI, knowledge is increasingly a commodity available to anyone with a laptop or phone. But the ability to convert knowledge into skill, and then to performance is rarer than ever, and increasingly crucial. As AI and other technologies increase our capabilities, and provide a kind of exoskeletal skillset, career models like the Career Stages help us keep up.
Even as AI is transforming the early career landscape, it doesn't have to derail development. Organizations that reimagine apprenticeship, mentorship, and work experiences can still build strong talent foundations. Get in touch with the RBL team to explore how your organization can adapt to develop early-career talent in the age of AI.
About the authors
Jon Younger and Norm Smallwood are co-authors of Agile Talent (Harvard, 2016) and many articles in HBR, HR Management, and elsewhere. Jon is the co-founder and CEO of Mensch.work. Norm is the co-founder of The RBL Group.